It is now pretty much consensus that the sanctions on Russia have failed. Yet their failure was extremely predictable. Why did Western policymakers think they would work? It appears that they did not undertake a realistic economic analysis. The invasion caught many by surprise, to be sure, but this doesn’t excuse policymakers from not gaming out a sanctions scenario beforehand.
"Sales of Russian models have increased enormously, doubling as a share of the total and now making up more than half the overall market. The Chinese share of the market has also tripled and now comprises almost a fifth of the total; Chinese models now compete with all other international models."
Sales of Russian models have not increased. Their share in total sales have increased, but not unit sales because Russian car market is this depressed. Sales of Lada has halved compared to 2021, sales of GAZ are 34% down, and UAZ is 24% down. Chinese brands have also seen unit sales decreases. You can see full data here: https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/automotive-sales-in-russia-by-month
Also, while Lada might eventually ramp up production, not all cars are made equal.
Lada resumed manufacturing of cars without even the most basic safety equipment such as ABS and airbags, which will cause thousands of deaths on the notoriously unsafe and derelict Russian roads in the coming years. They'll also lack power windows. Lada currently can only manufacture two of its models, the outdated Granta (built on Lada Kalina platform from mid 1990s) and the ancient Niva (only cosmetic changes since 1970s). They are also able to only manufacture one engine, the 1.6 90 HP, which can only meet the EURO2 emissions standard -- killing additional Russians with increased pollution.
Also, new car sales are not all car sales. If you've ever been to Siberia, you'd know that East of Krasnoyarsk, the only cars will the wheel on the left-hand side are police cars and ambulances. Everyone else drives imported used cars from Japan. In Kaliningrad and Karelia, everyone drives imported used cars from the EU, on the other hand. Cutting Russians off from these sources will mean lots of them will not be able to afford any kind of car, meaning either they continue driving these aging used cars until their technical death or they'll have to switch to public transportation, deteriorating their standard of living.
The invasion didn’t catch anyone by surprise because intelligence reports, for once right, highlighted movement of troops already in October 2019. I think we live in times were politicians react emotionally then they think but it is too late to dial back. We have seen it with Covid, immigration, alternative sources of energy. Not a single cost benefit analysis performed before implementing policies.
President Biden is taking the usa down one day at a time. SAnctions on Russia are hiring Americans and her allies in Europe. Allies know they must do as they are told or the usa will cut them off as well. The sooner Joe and his advisors get the hell out of the White House, the sooner America will return to normalcy.
"Sales of Russian models have increased enormously, doubling as a share of the total and now making up more than half the overall market. The Chinese share of the market has also tripled and now comprises almost a fifth of the total; Chinese models now compete with all other international models."
Sales of Russian models have not increased. Their share in total sales have increased, but not unit sales because Russian car market is this depressed. Sales of Lada has halved compared to 2021, sales of GAZ are 34% down, and UAZ is 24% down. Chinese brands have also seen unit sales decreases. You can see full data here: https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/automotive-sales-in-russia-by-month
Also, while Lada might eventually ramp up production, not all cars are made equal.
Lada resumed manufacturing of cars without even the most basic safety equipment such as ABS and airbags, which will cause thousands of deaths on the notoriously unsafe and derelict Russian roads in the coming years. They'll also lack power windows. Lada currently can only manufacture two of its models, the outdated Granta (built on Lada Kalina platform from mid 1990s) and the ancient Niva (only cosmetic changes since 1970s). They are also able to only manufacture one engine, the 1.6 90 HP, which can only meet the EURO2 emissions standard -- killing additional Russians with increased pollution.
Also, new car sales are not all car sales. If you've ever been to Siberia, you'd know that East of Krasnoyarsk, the only cars will the wheel on the left-hand side are police cars and ambulances. Everyone else drives imported used cars from Japan. In Kaliningrad and Karelia, everyone drives imported used cars from the EU, on the other hand. Cutting Russians off from these sources will mean lots of them will not be able to afford any kind of car, meaning either they continue driving these aging used cars until their technical death or they'll have to switch to public transportation, deteriorating their standard of living.
The invasion didn’t catch anyone by surprise because intelligence reports, for once right, highlighted movement of troops already in October 2019. I think we live in times were politicians react emotionally then they think but it is too late to dial back. We have seen it with Covid, immigration, alternative sources of energy. Not a single cost benefit analysis performed before implementing policies.
President Biden is taking the usa down one day at a time. SAnctions on Russia are hiring Americans and her allies in Europe. Allies know they must do as they are told or the usa will cut them off as well. The sooner Joe and his advisors get the hell out of the White House, the sooner America will return to normalcy.