With 5 months + to convey property, nobody is going to be leaving the property market quickly. Nor are they going to get much value for their property if they dash - as many property trusts demonstrate. They are very illiquid.
Plus a 'sudden stop' in Sterling means a 'sudden infinity' in every other currency in the world relative to Sterling. Quite a lot of whom have extensive exports into the UK. It only takes *one* of those central banks to buy up all the spare Sterling to rescue their export market and the problem goes away.
"The correct attitude towards the currency is a benign neglect, such as the attitude of modern Canadian central bankers. If your domestic inflation situation is under control, the currency cannot fall too far without relative prices getting too far out of whack. Let the trend followers have their fun, but sooner or later, the currency value will revert."
A smart government would simply fix the price of 'needed' imports and transfer the cost of the subsidy to 'discretionary' imports - primarily the ones from China. Then let the exchange rate do its work at squeezing out excess imports.
Very good points, however, I think there is a possibility some foreign countries would like to see Sterling crash. It is unlikely that US or EU will prop up Sterling, so they would rely on countries somewhat friendly to Russia to buy..
If it is one thing I have noticed during the Russo Ukrainian war, it is that we Europeans are not as popular around the world as we think we are. Espescially not the North Western Europe and particularly the UK.
No offence. I am a huge admirer of the UK, and british culture. Just saying.
With 5 months + to convey property, nobody is going to be leaving the property market quickly. Nor are they going to get much value for their property if they dash - as many property trusts demonstrate. They are very illiquid.
Plus a 'sudden stop' in Sterling means a 'sudden infinity' in every other currency in the world relative to Sterling. Quite a lot of whom have extensive exports into the UK. It only takes *one* of those central banks to buy up all the spare Sterling to rescue their export market and the problem goes away.
Never forget there are two sides to a market.
As Brian Romanchuk points out (https://bondeconomics.substack.com/p/the-markets-made-me-do-it)
"The correct attitude towards the currency is a benign neglect, such as the attitude of modern Canadian central bankers. If your domestic inflation situation is under control, the currency cannot fall too far without relative prices getting too far out of whack. Let the trend followers have their fun, but sooner or later, the currency value will revert."
A smart government would simply fix the price of 'needed' imports and transfer the cost of the subsidy to 'discretionary' imports - primarily the ones from China. Then let the exchange rate do its work at squeezing out excess imports.
Very good points, however, I think there is a possibility some foreign countries would like to see Sterling crash. It is unlikely that US or EU will prop up Sterling, so they would rely on countries somewhat friendly to Russia to buy..
If it is one thing I have noticed during the Russo Ukrainian war, it is that we Europeans are not as popular around the world as we think we are. Espescially not the North Western Europe and particularly the UK.
No offence. I am a huge admirer of the UK, and british culture. Just saying.