Today I am not going to lay out any data or anything like that. I jut want to put down some thoughts on inflation. I will do so in the form of a Q&A as it will allow for a Devil’s Advocate sort of assessment. This is important because I think there are reasonable disagreements over whether inflation is here to stay or not.
The point about Western decline is spot on. Trump won his presidency on his promise to make America great AGAIN. Surely that tells us all we need to know about the current state of the US and by extension most of the Western world. We must realise , as Trump did, that the power of the West is declining. Unfortunately it is unlikely that our leaders can do much to prevent this slide, now that China has, as it were, made its mission for world dominance clear. Our main focus must be on how to manage that decline. Controlled or chaotic- we all know which we must aim for.
When the British Empire fell, the fallout was not that painful. The British shared more or less the same values as the United States. I fear for the impact on the US this time, having to cede power to China. They couldn't be more different, and the US will be more like a raging bull dying by a thousand cuts...
They will not be able to accept the loss of their hegemony gracefully. It is simply too much to bear for them. This will not play out well - unless the US can find an emotionally intelligent leader to guide them through these incredibly dangerous waters.
"Russian oil, for example, is flowing to other countries at ‘normal’ prices and we are left with less oil to go around in the West."
How does that work? Surely it is musical chairs for the most part. Russia sells oil to India. India no longer takes Nigerian oil. Nigerian oil is sold to the West.
The dead losses are the capital delivery mechanisms that are rendered useless by the block on free trade - the pipelines primarily and the redirection of shipping.
Could be the increased transaction costs. Could be that much of the replaced oil can’t get to the West. All I know is that the price of oil in New Delhi is different to the price of oil in London.
Russia produces less oil in general - several pulled service contracts from Western companies do hurt short-term while companies try to find alternatives.
Oil demand still rises while OPEC+ doesn't hit their production growth targets (even ignoring Russian production losses).
Longer shipping times (Russia-India is much-much longer then Russia-Europe) means additional constraints on oil tankers; Russia also used smaller vessels for Europe which aren't going to India.
The point about Western decline is spot on. Trump won his presidency on his promise to make America great AGAIN. Surely that tells us all we need to know about the current state of the US and by extension most of the Western world. We must realise , as Trump did, that the power of the West is declining. Unfortunately it is unlikely that our leaders can do much to prevent this slide, now that China has, as it were, made its mission for world dominance clear. Our main focus must be on how to manage that decline. Controlled or chaotic- we all know which we must aim for.
When the British Empire fell, the fallout was not that painful. The British shared more or less the same values as the United States. I fear for the impact on the US this time, having to cede power to China. They couldn't be more different, and the US will be more like a raging bull dying by a thousand cuts...
They will not be able to accept the loss of their hegemony gracefully. It is simply too much to bear for them. This will not play out well - unless the US can find an emotionally intelligent leader to guide them through these incredibly dangerous waters.
"Russian oil, for example, is flowing to other countries at ‘normal’ prices and we are left with less oil to go around in the West."
How does that work? Surely it is musical chairs for the most part. Russia sells oil to India. India no longer takes Nigerian oil. Nigerian oil is sold to the West.
The dead losses are the capital delivery mechanisms that are rendered useless by the block on free trade - the pipelines primarily and the redirection of shipping.
Could be the increased transaction costs. Could be that much of the replaced oil can’t get to the West. All I know is that the price of oil in New Delhi is different to the price of oil in London.
Russia produces less oil in general - several pulled service contracts from Western companies do hurt short-term while companies try to find alternatives.
Oil demand still rises while OPEC+ doesn't hit their production growth targets (even ignoring Russian production losses).
Longer shipping times (Russia-India is much-much longer then Russia-Europe) means additional constraints on oil tankers; Russia also used smaller vessels for Europe which aren't going to India.