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Forecasting a recession with construction data
A recent thread I did on Twitter that may be of interest to subscribers. 1/ Everyone seems to think the recent jobs numbers show a strong US economy…
Feb 6
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Philip Pilkington
8
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Forecasting a recession with construction data
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January 2023
Multipolarity: The Podcast
Exploring the geopolitics and economics of the emerging multipolar world order
Jan 13
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Philip Pilkington
4
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Multipolarity: The Podcast
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November 2022
Russian sanctions: the view from the car market
It is now pretty much consensus that the sanctions on Russia have failed. Yet their failure was extremely predictable. Why did Western policymakers…
Nov 25, 2022
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Philip Pilkington
12
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Russian sanctions: the view from the car market
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The shape of the chip market in the wake of the Chinese ban
It is very unclear what America is trying to achieve
Nov 8, 2022
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Philip Pilkington
8
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The shape of the chip market in the wake of the Chinese ban
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Will the weather save us from the energy crisis?
Eh, no
Nov 7, 2022
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Philip Pilkington
2
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Will the weather save us from the energy crisis?
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What would a run on sterling driven by property outflows look like?
Pretty bad, to be honest
Nov 4, 2022
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Philip Pilkington
5
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What would a run on sterling driven by property outflows look like?
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October 2022
Chris Giles’ article on the energy crisis isn’t honest with the data
Earlier this week, the price on gas contracts in Europe went briefly negative. It was obvious this was a bubble, and a dive into the justifications for…
Oct 28, 2022
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Philip Pilkington
6
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Chris Giles’ article on the energy crisis isn’t honest with the data
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The UK's debt crisis is going to be unique
And not in a good way
Oct 24, 2022
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Philip Pilkington
6
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The UK's debt crisis is going to be unique
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The curious case of the missing natural gas imports
Strange things afoot in the EU natural gas import statistics
Oct 19, 2022
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Philip Pilkington
5
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The curious case of the missing natural gas imports
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Picking an Economic Fight With China is Unwise
Expect the consequences to be grim
Oct 17, 2022
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Philip Pilkington
13
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Picking an Economic Fight With China is Unwise
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August 2022
Can the UK afford energy subsidies?
I published the following as a thread on Twitter. It may be of more general interest and probably applies somewhat to other European countries too. 1…
Aug 17, 2022
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Philip Pilkington
7
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Can the UK afford energy subsidies?
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July 2022
Is this or is this not a recession?
It doesn't matter, there are much bigger changes afoot
Jul 29, 2022
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Philip Pilkington
8
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Is this or is this not a recession?
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